Decadal Rainfall Variability in the Drylands

Deskripsi:

The open access paper, “Decadal Rainfall Variability in the Drylands of East Nusa Tenggara”, authored by Tri Ayu Lestari and Andika Andika and published in the IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science in 2025, examines the fluctuating rainfall patterns in East Nusa Tenggara (NTT), a region characterized by low annual rainfall and prolonged dry seasons that pose significant challenges to agricultural productivity. The research utilized the monthly Climate Hazards Group Infrared Precipitation with Stations (CHIRPS) dataset covering three decadal periods from 1991 to 2020 (1991–2000, 2001–2010, and 2011–2020) to analyze these long-term trends. The analysis revealed significant fluctuations and non-stationary rainfall patterns: the first decade (1991–2000) was dominated by wet anomalies; this was succeeded by widespread dry anomalies across most of the region during the second decade (2001–2010); and rainfall levels increased once more in the third decade (2011–2020). A temporal correlation analysis conducted in the study found a low correlation (below 0.45) between NTT’s rainfall variability and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon, suggesting that other factors like the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) may be more dominant in shaping the decadal rainfall characteristics. The findings are considered essential for policymakers and stakeholders to formulate effective mitigation strategies against potential droughts and support sustainable natural resource management in the drylands of NTT.