Tsunami model of the 2021 Flores earthquake and its impact on Labuan Bajo, East Nusa Tenggara

Deskripsi:

This paper, titled “Tsunami model of the 2021 Flores earthquake and its impact on Labuan Bajo, East Nusa Tenggara,” was authored by E H Sudjono et al. and published in the IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science in 2024. The research is focused on the East Nusa Tenggara region, a geologically active zone where the Indo-Australian plate converges with the Pacific Ocean plate, leading to notable seismic activity. Specifically, the study aimed to hindcast the phenomenon of the M 7.3 Flores earthquake that occurred on December 14, 2021, which caused a weak tsunami. The core objective was to assess potential hazards and vulnerabilities in the Labuan Bajo Tourism Region—a super-prioritized destination. To evaluate future risk, the authors applied forecasting scenarios related to amplified earthquake magnitudes. The TUNAMI Software, a non-linear shallow water equation model, was employed for the tsunami wave propagation and inundation simulation, using BATNAS-DEMNAS National elevation data as input. The simulation results indicated that while the actual 2021 event was non-damaging due to its strike-slip mechanism (resulting in only a modest sea level increase of approximately 7 cm), larger seismic events pose a severe threat. Scenarios modeling Mw 8.0 and Mw 8.5 earthquakes showed a significantly increased maximum tsunami height, reaching up to approximately 1.5 m near the coastline of Labuan Bajo. Furthermore, the study conducted a Tsunami Disaster Loss Assessment by evaluating the economic worth of land use (built area, vegetation, and non-vegetation) compromised by the simulated inundation, referencing regulations from the Badan Nasional Penanggulangan Bencana. The research concludes that effective mitigation strategies are crucial, necessitating the implementation of advanced early warning systems, meticulously devised evacuation processes, and the development of infrastructure resilient against earthquakes and tsunamis to ensure Labuan Bajo remains a secure and sustainable tourism destination